Scientists predict disastrous developments if global warming continues on its current trajectory.

By MARK BRZEZINSKI and BJORN LYRVALL      May 17, 2015

Niila Inga, a Sami leader in that part of Sweden that is above the Arctic Circle, has this to say about the impact of climate change on the future of his reindeer herding society: “If this climate change keeps going at this rate, I’m pretty sure that the reindeer won’t survive it. It goes too fast right now. And without the reindeer, the whole Sami culture will disappear, and the world will be an indigenous people poorer.”

Niila’s message is one we should heed. Scientists predict disastrous developments for humanity if global warming continues on its current trajectory. The scientific data are clear. 2014 was the hottest year on record. Fourteen of the fifteen warmest years on record have occurred since the year 2000. We are potentially looking at an ice-free summer in the Arctic as early as 2040, just 25 years from now.

And there is a direct link between what is happening in the Arctic and what happens in the rest of the world. One consequence of the path we are on is irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the world’s second largest next to the Antarctic ice sheet. That could lead to a sea level rise of more than 23 feet, which would affect low-lying communities the world over.

Cities close to sea level like Bangkok, Mumbai and Manila will likely be severely impacted. There are roughly 15 million people who live less than one meter above sea level in Bangladesh. And the U.S. will not escape the threat, as the U.S. Arctic Research Commission explains: “The 1,000-mile stretch of the highly populated coastline from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Boston, Massachusetts, is a sea level rise ‘hotspot,’ with the greatest projected sea level increase to occur on the shores of New York City. Significant storm surges, such as the one that occurred during Superstorm Sandy in 2012, will likely be more frequent.”

Loss of sea ice will also directly contribute to and accelerate climate change, since ice reflects solar energy to space. Scientists estimate that snow and ice reflect back to space up to 80 to 90 percent of solar energy. On the other hand, dark ocean water absorbs 85 percent of solar energy.

The House of Sweden in Washington, D.C., will host a conference, “The Arctic — Hot or Cold,” on Tuesday and Wednesday to highlight the challenges and opportunities of a changing Arctic. Too few people are aware of the imminence of the threat we face. Time is not on our side.

We have an obligation to protect the Arctic, where climate change threatens this fragile region’s rich biodiversity. Far from a barren wasteland of snow and ice, the Arctic is a unique ecosystem home to 4 million people spread across eight countries that lie above the Arctic Circle: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States. Arctic residents live in societies that are very differentiated. Some communities are very developed, while others are more spread out and remote, with less access to infrastructure and services. They depend on a healthy ecosystem.

The Arctic is also a potential source of natural resources. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Arctic may contain as much as 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil resources (90 billion barrels) and more than 20 percent of global gas resources (1,669 trillion cubic feet). Given diminished presence of yearlong sea ice and icebergs, warming Arctic temperatures are predicted to increase twice as much as the global average. And with advances in technology, the Arctic’s natural resources are primed for development. Accessing these resources in an environmentally sustainable manner will be key to the long-term health of the region and its rich biodiversity.

As we consider how to engage on the Arctic, one hopeful sign is the positive cooperation witnessed in the Arctic Council, a high-level intergovernmental forum that provides the means for cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic states, as well as with the involvement of the Arctic indigenous communities and other Arctic inhabitants. The eight Arctic nations formed the council in 1996. As stated in the vision adopted by Arctic ministers in Kiruna, Sweden, in 2013, the council will continue to strengthen itself to cooperate on shared challenges and pursue opportunities to expand its roles from policy-shaping into policymaking.

All Arctic states and the rest of the world benefit from peaceful agreement that the collaborative work of the Arctic Council advances. The chairmanship of the Arctic Council rotates every two years among the eight Arctic states, and the U.S. chairmanship began last month. The theme of the U.S. chairmanship is “One Arctic: Shared Opportunities, Challenges and Responsibilities.” That theme will be pursued through three main goals: (1) Arctic Ocean safety, security and stewardship; (2) improving economic and living conditions for the millions of people who live in the Arctic; and (3) addressing the impact of climate change.

When it comes to Arctic Ocean safety, for example, one focus will be on the increase in tourism and shipping in the Arctic. This year, an estimated 200,000 cruise ship passengers will travel to the Arctic region, and the shipping industry sees the melting of sea ice as creating enormous possibilities for new and more efficient shipping routes between Asia and Europe. The opening of new shipping lanes due to melting ice can be likened to, as one strategist put it, the simultaneous building of the Panama and Suez canals.

To responsibly address this growth, Arctic states need to plan and train for accidents and disasters. The first binding legal agreement among the Arctic states, the Search and Rescue Agreement, has been put in place among Arctic Council countries. The U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic Council is an opportunity to exercise it and to identify best practices.

Beyond that, we need to prepare for the safe and sustainable development of natural resources in the Arctic, including energy exploration. If there were an oil spill in the Arctic, Arctic states and others need to be prepared to address it. During the Swedish chairmanship, the basis was developed as the second legal agreement of the Arctic states was signed, the Agreement on Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response. Given the likelihood of increased energy exploration in the Arctic, now is the time for the implementation of this agreement.

Regarding improving the economic and living conditions for the people living in the Arctic, millions of Arctic residents rely on dirty and inefficient diesel-generated heat and electricity. If we don’t act soon, the long-term effects of black carbon on human health will be an even greater challenge for these communities. In addition, suicide rates in the Arctic are among the highest in the world. Creating a common set of metrics and indicators for suicide risk and prevention and response is an opportunity we should seize during the U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic Council.

In addressing the impact of climate change, we need to fully understand what is happening to the precious biodiversity of the Arctic. For example, as the ocean absorbs more carbon dioxide, the ocean’s increased acidification affects shellfish. What is that impact, and are there ways to mitigate it? Arctic inhabitants will also tell you of invasive plant and animal species never before seen in the Arctic region. We want to improve our understanding of what’s happening in the Arctic and its impact on biodiversity, by, for example, expanding monitoring of black carbon and methane emissions. The U.S. chairmanship will work with Sweden and a broad range of stakeholders, including Arctic Council observer states and industry, to advance measures to prevent emissions.

We have an ambitious agenda, and it cannot be achieved without the support, engagement and agreement of all eight Arctic states. The Arctic is simultaneously a strategic challenge and a human challenge, and people will differ on how they look at the Arctic. Luckily, nature can be a great unifier — and that unity will be critical because meeting the challenges of the Arctic requires unprecedented international cooperation.

Mark Brzezinski is the United States ambassador to Sweden.

Bjorn Lyrvall is Sweden's ambassador to the United States.