A root cause analysis for Arctic Marine accidents from 1993 to 2011

Kum, S; Sahin, B

The aim of this paper is to investigate the marine accidents/incidents which are recorded by Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) as occurring north of 66 degrees 33' in the years from 1993 to 2011 to reveal their causes by using root cause analysis. Due to the global warming, increase of ice melt in North Pole is expected in the future. In the further years, number of vessels and shipping traffic will dramatically increase in the Arctic region. Thus, navigation will become more difficult in the Arctic Region. Consequently, to guide the vessels navigating in this region, an analysis of the previous marine accidents/incidents occurring in the Arctic region is required to improve the safety. Therefore, Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is proposed to clarify the causes and prevent the future incidents from happening. As an empirical study, fault trees of collision and grounding for the Arctic Region is constructed. Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) is applied to this problem in order to propose a recommendation to reduce the occurrence probabilities. Risk levels of each factors are determined by expert consultations. In this study, Accident to Person is found as the most observed incident. Negligence/careless of injured person has the highest priority for root causes of marine accidents. In order to combat this phenomenon, scientific results of this study can open up a dialog between law makers and shipping companies those aim to decline incidents. Furthermore, it is assumed to contribute representatives developing crew training manuals and competence requirements as well as opening Arctic navigation training centers.